SWODY1
SPC AC 051234
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST THU MAR 05 2009
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TODAY FROM THE WEST COAST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...WITH PRIMARY JET CORE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN CA TO THE DAKOTAS. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
JET...SEVERAL EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
AN AREA OF VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-30 TO -32C/ WILL
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF WY/MT AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL YIELD STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE
VALUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CLOUD LAYER
TO POSE A THREAT OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING
THE EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE MARGINAL
IN THIS AREA.
...CENTRAL CA COAST...
THE CORE OF A MID LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE INLAND TODAY OVER CENTRAL
CA...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED POCKET OF VERY COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /BELOW -30C/. THIS...COMBINED WITH AREAS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL RESULT IN RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES
OF 100-300 J/KG. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE WOULD SUPPORT A RISK
OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME LIGHTNING IN STRONGER CELLS.
..HART.. 03/05/2009
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