SWODY1
SPC AC 061619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2009
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT FROM
PARTS OF THE E-CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
OCCUR WITHIN LARGE POSITIVELY-TILED TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH PRIMARY ENERGY
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT.
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE DRY/STABLE AIR WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NATION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPWARD-MIXING OF
GREATER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH H85. THIS IN TURN WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ATOP STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SOUTH OF A
SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL E-W FROM NRN MO ACROSS NRN KS TO LOW
OVER E-CENTRAL CO DURING THE EVENING. SLY LLJ AND ATTENDANT GREATER
THETA-E ADVECTION/LIFT WILL INCREASE INTO PORTIONS OF KS/SRN NEB/NRN
MO/SRN IA IN RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTENING AT THE BASE OF PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE MUCAPE AND
LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION BETWEEN 03-06Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITHIN THE
CLOUD-LAYER FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT AS IT SHIFTS STEADILY ENEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. HAIL...SOME OF WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA...IS EXPECTED WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 03/06/2009
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