SWODY1
SPC AC 121951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2009
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE CONVECTIVE DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WITH
JUST A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE GENERAL TSTM LINE IN AZ TO ACCOUNT
FOR CU FORMATION/POTENTIAL TSTM THREAT EXTENDING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NWRN/SERN AZ.
...SWRN STATES...
A BROAD SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD
INTO AZ/NM. DESPITE MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF AZ/NM/FAR SWRN TX...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES/SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS INTO THE
EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY FOSTER HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH MORE
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...TX...
TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WAA DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL/ERN TX LATER THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT STILL REMAINS LOW ATTM.
..PETERS.. 03/12/2009
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