SWODY1
SPC AC 031957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2009
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...FEATURING PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING OFF E COAST...RIDGING
SHIFTING EWD OVER GREAT PLAINS STATES...AND MEAN TROUGHING OFFSHORE
PACIFIC COAST. PRIMARY ASSOCIATED FEATURE WILL BE BROAD CYCLONE
ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA AND
ORE. SEVERAL LOWER-AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND
THIS VORTEX...WHILE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NRN CA AND SRN ORE EJECTS
NEWD ACROSS ERN ORE TOWARD SERN WA AND WRN ID.
...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
NNW-SSE ALIGNED LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS SRN SAC VALLEY AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...INTO
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STRONGLY HEATED AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE 100-300 J/KG DEVELOPING IN NARROW ZONE
S OF PRESENT ACTIVITY...AND N OF CENTRAL/SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WHERE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT THUNDER.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF PACIFIC AND REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY
OVER SAC VALLEY...BENEFITING FROM LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD OF
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FOLLOWING INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN. BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
LACK OF CLOUD COVER HAS PERMITTED SUSTAINED DIABATIC SFC HEATING
ACROSS SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REGION SWD ACROSS NRN NV AND EXTREME NWRN
UT. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS APPARENT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND
MESOBETA SCALE BAROCLINIC ZONE ARCHING THROUGH SNAKE RIVER VALLEY
HAS SAGGED SWD OFF SNOW FIELDS N OF VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT
AS FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS -- SFC AND ALOFT -- AS HEATING CONTINUES IN ADVANCE
OF APCHG NRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEAKENING CINH ALREADY HAS LED TO
SHALLOW/HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA...WHICH SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND DEPTH THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS.
..EDWARDS.. 03/03/2009
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