SWODY2
SPC AC 041711
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CST WED MAR 04 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
POSITIVELY-TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN
STATES AS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM DIG SWD FROM THE FAR NERN PACIFIC/BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS
UPPER SYSTEM...VORTICITY MAXIMUM OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL WEAKEN
WHILE TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...
LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL RAPIDLY
LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MORE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.
A SWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU
INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH THE TRANSLATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS FROM ERN
TX/LA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH AN
EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WHICH IS FORECAST TO EFFECTIVELY CAP AIR
MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT. LATEST NAM BMJ/KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BETWEEN 06/00-06/03Z OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF LLJ FOR PARCELS BASED ABOVE 700 MB.
HOWEVER... CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE NAM SOLUTIONS
AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL/MOISTURE STRATIFICATION OF GFS SOUNDING
DATA. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ALSO EXISTS IN LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND NO
THUNDER AREA WILL BE ADDED.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CNTRL CA COAST
THURSDAY INVOF MIDLEVEL COLD POOL /500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -28 TO -30
C/ ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. CURRENTLY...THIS
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL. HERE TOO...NO GENERAL
THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED.
..MEAD.. 03/04/2009
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