SWODY2
SPC AC 161714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2009
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD AS THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL SEVERELY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. ONE EXCEPTION WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE OBSERVED WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER AREA WHERE CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTING WILL OCCUR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FL
ALONG WEAKLY FORCED WIND SHIFT.
...IA TO LOWER MI...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MODIFIED AIRMASS ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BEFORE
VEERING NEWD AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM
NERN KS INTO LOWER MI. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/COOL
SIDE OF BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB WILL
YIELD MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS...MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORCING.
...SOUTH FL...
FORECAST DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES ACROSS SOUTH FL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD WHICH WILL LIMIT
OVERALL INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF REINFORCING SURGE OF CONTINENTAL
AIR THAT WILL BUILD SWD INTO THIS REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING BOUNDARY...AND FORECAST MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENT LAYER...IT APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH FL WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.
..DARROW.. 03/16/2009
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