SWODY2
SPC AC 031722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
EWD SHIFT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD...AS TROUGHING
NOW OVER E COAST MOVES OUT OVER ATLANTIC. RIDGING ALOFT -- NOW OVER
HIGH PLAINS -- WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN
PLAINS DAY-2. BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA AND ORE INVOF 130W ATTM. THIS
CIRCULATION IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSUMING POSITIVE TILT THROUGH PERIOD AS SPEED MAX NOW OVER AK DIGS
SEWD THEN SWD OVER BC.
AT SFC...LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OVER GREAT PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH
PERIOD AS HEIGHT VALUES FALL SOMEWHAT AND GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN
OVER ROCKIES. THIS WILL INTENSIFY ONGOING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER
MUCH OF CENTAL CONUS. HOWEVER...RECENT DEEP/POLAR FROPA OVER GULF
-- AND RESULTANT LENGTHY PROCESS OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION NEEDED TO
REGENERATE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYERS -- WILL MEAN INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT E OF ROCKIES.
...CENTRAL/NRN CA TO NRN GREAT BASIN REGION...
COOLING ALOFT INVOF MID-UPPER TROUGH...RESULTANT STEEPENING OF
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL/NRN CA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 100-400 J/KG...WITH
POCKETS OF SFC HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MAX IN COVERAGE.
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WEAKER FLOW AND SHEAR
IN LOW-MIDLEVELS...AND GENERALLY LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
MODES...THAN PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER STRONGEST CELLS MAY YIELD HAIL
GIVEN DEPTH/INTENSITY OF COLD AIR ALOFT. SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL AND WEAK ATTM FOR PROBABILITIES AOA 5 PERCENT.
MEANWHILE...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MRGL LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT SFC/DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES 100-200 J/KG INLAND ACROSS
PORTIONS NRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD SRN ID...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS MAINLY DURING DAYTIME.
..EDWARDS.. 03/03/2009
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