SWODY3
SPC AC 050730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CST THU MAR 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PATS OF NRN OK...ERN KS
AND FAR WRN MO...
...CNTRL AND ERN KS/NRN AND CNTRL OK/FAR WRN MO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP REINFORCE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A CNTRL PLAINS COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES SWD ACROSS KS DURING THE DAY...CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING
THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SATURDAY
EVENING SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO
70 KT/ WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8.0 C/KM AND MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUGGEST A CAPPING INVERSION WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR SO THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
COULD ALSO DEVELOP IF LINE-SEGMENTS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT. A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD ALSO EXIST NEWD INTO NRN MO AND FAR SRN
IA SATURDAY EVENING WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST /500 MB TEMPS OF
-16 TO -18C/ AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
..BROYLES.. 03/05/2009
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