SWODY3
SPC AC 060828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2009
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH
VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...
...MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONGST 00Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL MODELS...BUT
GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY COMPACT/NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. ONGOING EARLY DAY TSTMS COULD POSE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL AND PERHAPS INDIANA. WITH COLD PROFILES
ALOFT/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...GRADUAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION/NEAR-SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE INFLUX OF NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN TSTM INTENSITY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT. SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
RISKS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
...ARKLATEX VICINITY...
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN JUXTAPOSED ATOP UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WEAKENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND WEAK/AMORPHOUS LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF
THE MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH...LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT. AN
APPRECIABLY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WITH A REEVALUATION IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..GUYER.. 03/06/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment