SWODY3
SPC AC 080815
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST...
...MIDWEST...
A POTENT/INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS
COMPLICATES THE SCENARIO...BUT IT APPEARS A RELATIVELY WARM/FAIRLY
MOIST EARLY SEASON AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER/ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT FROM MO/IA TO THE
ADJACENT MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODESTLY HIGHER PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS /70-80 KT 500 MB AND 50
KT AROUND 1 KM/ WOULD SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED LOW TOPPED STORMS/SOME
SUPERCELLS EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /PERHAPS ONLY 500 J PER KG
SBCAPE/. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISKS
THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
...ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO CENTRAL TX...
FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND/OR DRYLINE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...A WEAKER/MORE AMORPHOUS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AND WEAKENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS AN
APPRECIABLE/WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG WIND FIELDS ATOP AROUND 60/LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO
CENTRAL TX.
..GUYER.. 03/08/2009
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