SWOD48
SPC AC 021005
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 AM CST MON MAR 02 2009
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ERN STATES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
AGREEMENT BRINGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
THURSDAY/DAY4 AND FRIDAY/DAY 5. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
QUICKLY BY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. AND THE GFS SHOWING A
TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN
STATES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTS IN A LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GFS SOLUTION
SHOWING A SFC TROUGH/FRONT IN THE PLAINS AND A WARM SECTOR OVER THE
MS VALLEY. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACTIVITY IN THE MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE SHOWN BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SCENARIO REMAINS VERY LOW ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 03/02/2009
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