SWOD48
SPC AC 030957
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2009
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES FRIDAY AND
MOVING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND ROCKIES REGION
SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AND OZARKS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT FROM THE SRN PLAINS NNEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN HIGH CONCERNING
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL NOT OUTLOOK AN AREA ATTM.
HOWEVER...AS CERTAINTY INCREASES...AN OUTLOOK AREA MAY BE NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
BEYOND SUNDAY/DAY 6...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE IN
AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN STATES
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S.
THIS WOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON DAY
7/MONDAY AND DAY 8/TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT TO ESTABLISH RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE CONSIDERING AN OUTLOOK IN THE SCNTRL U.S.
LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 03/03/2009
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