SWOD48
SPC AC 060958
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2009
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z GEFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED EASTWARD EVOLUTION
OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ON DAY
4/MONDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWER MO VALLEY. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND NORTH TX/SOUTH OK
VICINITY...WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWARD
ACROSS OK/KS/MO ON MONDAY/DAY 4...ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 60F
DEWPOINTS. WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FOR DAY 5/TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...A RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY ALONG/AHEAD OF A QUICKLY
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT
SEEMS LIKELY IN THIS SCENARIO...INHERENT MODEL VARIABILITY/FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES A 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AT THIS
TIME.
THEREAFTER...WITH THE CENTRAL STATES PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD...FOCUS FOR ANY MID WEEK SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
TX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENTLY LOW
PREDICTABILITY/POTENTIAL PRECLUDES ANY SEVERE RISK AREAS.
..GUYER.. 03/06/2009
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