SWOD48
SPC AC 170850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS CONTINUE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WITH
THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WRN TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS LATE DAY 6 /SUN. 3-22/
AND THEN INTO THE N CENTRAL CONUS DAY 7. MEANWHILE...THE MUCH LESS
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF KEEPS THIS TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH DAY
6...WITH A CLOSED LOW EVOLVING JUST N OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DAY
7.
THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS AN INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
PLAINS -- BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE DAY 5/DAY 6 -- AS SLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS ADVECTS MOISTURE NWD FROM AN OPEN GULF AHEAD
OF A LARGE WRN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH PERSISTING IN THE DIFFERENT
MODELS...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING ANY SEVERE THREAT AREAS ATTM.
..GOSS.. 03/17/2009
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