SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070004
OKZ000-TXZ000-070130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070004Z - 070130Z
ISOLATED/DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING NEAR THE CAPROCK REGION OF THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.
STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE SMALL TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OR A
LOCALLY-STRONG WIND GUST...BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE
CAPROCK SE OF AMARILLO...WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NEWD AND
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE OK/TX BORDER.
THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MARGINAL/HIGH-BASED CAPE...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A MODEST RETURN OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WHOSE WWD SPREAD IS BEING INHIBITED BY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOW A WIND FIELD VEERING/INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT TO 50 TO 60 KT AT MID LEVELS -- AND THUS SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COMBINATION OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND THE CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF CELL DEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL
AND VERY ISOLATED...AND THUS WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.
..GOSS.. 03/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34620131 34950137 35480112 35849990 34899989 34580029
34490084 34620131
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