SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070317
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN MO AND VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 070317Z - 070515Z
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN KS AND THEN SPREAD/EXPAND ENEWD WITH TIME. WITH
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS...WW MAY BE
NEEDED.
EVENING TOP RAOB REVEALS A DEEP DRY LAYER THROUGH ROUGHLY 600 MB
ALONG WITH AN ABSENCE OF CAPE. HOWEVER...STRONG SLY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS -- WHICH WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING -- WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE NOT ONLY LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...BUT MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB.
AS A RESULT...ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE -- WITH A
MODIFICATION OF THE 00Z TOPEKA RAOB TO REFLECT DOWNSTREAM /NORMAN
OK/ MOISTURE AROUND H8 RESULTING IN AROUND 900 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE
CAPE.
ASSUMING THIS DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...MID-LEVEL FLOW 60 TO 70 KT
FROM THE WSW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE SPEED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THUS -- WITH HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION WITH
TIME...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
..GOSS.. 03/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39039457 38909746 39419859 40329791 40719597 40929323
39969213 39349273 39039457
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