MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0335

ACUS11 KWNS 302055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302055
KSZ000-OKZ000-302230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302055Z - 302230Z

SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
BETWEEN 30/22-31/00Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /STILL SHALLOW/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ALONG A
TOP-ICT-END LINE AS OF 2030Z. THIS CLOUD FORMATION IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS WHICH HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NWRN TX INTO N-CNTRL OK. MOREOVER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NEARING COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED SURFACE CONDITIONS
SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH A
WEAKENING CAP. WHILE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THESE DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT FURTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL
CONTRIBUTE MORE MEANINGFUL DESTABILIZATION THIS EVENING WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG...NAMELY OVER ERN OK.

HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
OVERTAKEN DRYLINE AS FAR S AS N-CNTRL OK. DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ANAFRONTAL AIRFLOW REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

..MEAD.. 03/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36639709 37589707 38359679 38489648 38529600 38349554
37629518 36009584 35859672 36069705 36639709

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