MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0348

ACUS11 KWNS 311827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311826
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-312100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD / NWRN IA / SWRN AND N-CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 311826Z - 312100Z

HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HR/ WILL GRADUALLY
WANE DURING THE AFTN HRS /18-21Z/ ACROSS MUCH OF N-CNTRL MN/ERN SD.
SNOWFALL RATES GENERALLY BELOW 1 INCH/HR WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS
OF SWRN MN 20-00Z.

TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN REFLECTIVITIES
ACROSS MUCH OF ERN SD WITH A WELL DEVELOPED DRYSLOT EVIDENT VIA
RADAR/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SRN HALF OF MN INTO WRN WI
SPREADING NWD. DEEP CLOSED LOW INVOF SD/MN/IA BORDER WITH ATTENDANT
992 MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NEWD AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH TIME. WITH WARM MOIST CONVEYER
BECOMING MORE REMOVED WITH ITS SSE-NNW AXIS SHIFTING EWD TOWARDS
LAKE MICH AWAY FROM CLOSED LOW...A LESS FOCUSED WAA TONGUE WILL
PENETRATE INTO NRN MN WITH SNOWFALL RATES CORRESPONDINGLY EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN. THIS IS MIRRORED WITH GPS/PW DATA INDICATING THIS MOIST
FETCH MOVING EWD OVER CNTRL WI AS OF 18Z.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVIER N-S BAND OF SNOW LOCATED OVER ERN
SD...WITH THIS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS MAINTAINED BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA.
FURTHER E OVER PARTS OF SWRN MN IN THE 20-00Z PERIOD...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES MOISTEN/DEEPEN WITH TIME AS INCREASING DCVA
/ENHANCED UVV/S ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

..SMITH.. 03/31/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45689123 46179373 46179526 45489618 45009595 44639457
44039430 43669477 42919565 43019741 43439808 44269814
45849709 47319505 47579225 47389127 46729041 45689123

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