SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311944
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-312115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS INTO SRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97...
VALID 311944Z - 312115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97
CONTINUES.
THROUGH 22Z...EXPECT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO EXIST
OVER SRN PORTION OF WW 97 AREA...MAINLY S OF THE MS/LA STATE LINE.
RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE INTENSIFYING STORMS
ALONG TRAILING EXTENSION OF DECAYED MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EAST
FELICIANA PARISH SWWD TO ACADIA PARISH WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION
OF 250/30-40 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS INCREASE IN
STORMS MAY BE IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL AIRSTREAM.
IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS IS WARM AND QUITE MOIST WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER SERN LA /PER
18Z LIX SOUNDING/. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED AND
WEAKENED SINCE THIS MORNING...RATHER STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
COINCIDENT WITH SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
FARTHER N OVER MS...REMNANT OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYED MCS IS
NOW NEARING THE AL BORDER NEAR OR N OF MEI. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS
TO NOW HAVE MERGED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WHICH
HAS EMANATED FROM PERSISTENT ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY TO THE E. THE
NET RESULT IS THAT AIR MASS OVER NRN PART OF WW AREA HAS BECOME MUCH
LESS SUITABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN MS /GENERALLY S OF I-20/...BUT AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GREATEST THREAT MAY REMAIN S OF THE MS/LA
STATE LINE.
..MEAD.. 03/31/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 29729416 31469369 32229044 33288968 33098821 31718834
28668898 29049343 29729416
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