SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312015
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-312145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...
VALID 312015Z - 312145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG AND S OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SRN AL/FL PENINSULA/SWRN GA THROUGH 00Z.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY RETREATING MARINE WARM FRONT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN FL.
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME
WEAKLY UNSTABLE /300-900 J/KG MLCAPE/ AMIDST VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
PROFILES /13-14 G/KG MIXING RATIO/. STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY--WHERE 1 MB /HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED--MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLD TORNADO AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER
N...WARM/MOIST FLUX N OF BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL RATES ACROSS SRN AL INTO SWRN GA WITHIN AXIS OF 50 KT SWLY
LLJ PER EVX VWP.
..SMITH.. 03/31/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 29268519 29898603 30298709 30778793 31218729 31518585
31788501 31788359 31458317 30978328 29908416 29268519
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