SWODY1
SPC AC 020038
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT WED APR 01 2009
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND
SRN GA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/NERN TX INTO
EXTREME SERN OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA...
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS SPREADING ACROSS
THE ERN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG
THE LA/TX BORDER. IT APPEARS SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN FL WILL
GRADUALLY RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO SPREAD INTO SRN GA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...PRIMARY ZONE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NWD ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM TLH INDICATES MORE THAN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 1800 J/KG...FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND CERTAINLY
SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WIND GUST/TORNADO WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
...CNTRL TX TO ARKLATEX...
UPPER LOW IS WELL DEFINED OVER NRN NM THIS EVENING AND THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD TOWARD NWRN TX IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
QUITE STEEP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS EVIDENT BY ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CONVECTION AND
INCREASING ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS TX PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE RETURNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE NOW RISING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE LOWER 60S. WITH TIME
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX ENHANCING THE
PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
THINKING IS GFS MAY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD
INTERACT WITH RAPIDLY RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS TX FOR
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...SHOULD
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN OK THE PROSPECT FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WILL BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY MARGINAL MOISTURE. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF TULSA FORECAST
AREA.
..DARROW.. 04/02/2009
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