DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061934
SWODY1
SPC AC 061931

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT MON APR 06 2009

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

-- UPDATES --

...CAROLINAS...
SVR OUTLOOK IS GONE...BECAUSE BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE SINCE PREV OUTLOOK...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BECOME DRIER
AND MORE STABLE INLAND. ISOLATED NON-SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE WITHIN
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE/PRECIP PLUME...ACROSS PORTIONS SRN/ERN NEW
ENGLAND...FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS.

...FL...
ISOLATED TSTMS STILL ARE POSSIBLE INVOF SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION...COMBINATION OF TWO
FACTORS PRECLUDES ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...
1. DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE WITH TIME INVOF FRONT AND
2. STABLE/CAPPING LAYER EVIDENT IN MORNING MFL/EYW SOUNDINGS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION WITH SWD EXTENT
OVER PENINSULA.

..EDWARDS.. 04/06/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT MON APR 06 2009/

...COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES...
DEEP TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD HAS PROVIDED
KINEMATIC CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AN ACTIVE MORNING OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. COMBINATION OF THE
SHEAR...PARTICULARLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN INFLUX OF
VERY MOIST AIR LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR
PRECEEDING THE STRONG COLD FRONT.

DEEPENING SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY
WILL TRACK JUST OFFSHORE NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE
ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF SEVERE INCLUDING POSSIBLE
TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANY SUPERCELL PRIOR TO
THE COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF NC/SRN MD.

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