SWODY1
SPC AC 010049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD
INTO THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLYS...
...OK/KS/SWRN MO/CNTRL-WRN AR...
00Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER ROGER MILLS COUNTY OK WITH A
DRYLINE SWD ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER TO SWRN TX. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ESE THROUGH LOGAN COUNTY OK THEN TO NEAR FORT SMITH AR.
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCV IN WRN KY IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING SBCINH RIDGING NWD INTO THE
RED RVR VLY HAS KEPT SFC-BASED STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH 00Z.
HOWEVER...SATL/RADAR SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM
INVOF THE MESOLOW OVER WCNTRL OK WHERE STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE
AND WEAKEST SBCINH EXIST. 00Z OUN SOUNDING EXHIBITED MUCAPE OF 3147
J/KG AND 8.4 C/KM H5-H7 LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN EARLY EVENING TORNADO OR
TWO.
NOCTURNAL SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 35 KTS...IMPINGING
ON THE NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. THUS...IT IS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ENE THROUGH
CNTRL/NRN OK AND INTO SERN KS...SWRN MO AND WRN AR THROUGH 12Z.
THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ELEVATED...BUT STORMS CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL OK COULD MAINTAIN NEAR-SFC BASED INFLOW WITH
THREATS FOR DMGG WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH HAIL THREATS.
...MID-SOUTH...
WELL-DEFINED MCV CONTINUES TRANSLATING ENE THROUGH FAR WRN KY WITH A
BAND OF 45-50 KTS OF WSW FLOW WRAPPING EWD THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH.
BAND OF STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG A TRAILING BOUNDARY HAS SHOWN
MEAGER ATTEMPTS AT LONGER-LIVED BOWS/LEWPS. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
THAT DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KY...WRN
TN...ECNTRL AR AND FAR NWRN AL THROUGH MID-EVENING. BUT...SVR
THREATS SHOULD DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER E AWAY FROM THE
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS.
...OH VLY...
WEAKENING MCV WAS EJECTING NEWD INTO THE LWR GRTLKS THIS EVENING
WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH WRN OH AND SRN IND.
VSB SATL LOOPS AND 00Z ILN SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT POCKETS OF MODEST
INSOLATION OCCURRED FROM SWRN OH INTO SRN IND DURING THE AFTN...WITH
WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF STRONGER STORM /GUSTY WINDS/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS
EVE.
..RACY.. 05/01/2009
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