SWODY1
SPC AC 071214
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2009
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL CA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD AND ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA AND CENTRAL ORE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY FORCING WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA
BETWEEN 21-03Z...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR MAXIMIZED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-500 J/KG. COLD THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES INDICATE A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS...THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED A 5% HAIL RISK AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN BFL AND SAC.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/07/2009
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