SWOD48
SPC AC 070850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2009
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE PATTERN OF ERN PAC
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AMPLIFYING INTO CLOSED LOWS ALONG THE CA
CST...THEN EJECTING EWD INTO THE SRN PLNS. THE LEAD UPR SYSTEM THAT
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THU-THU NIGHT
ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
THE TN/OH VLYS AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT IS LIKELY AS FAR N AS THE TN VLY AND SOME SVR MAY OCCUR
IN THAT AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A MEDIUM
RANGE SVR OUTLOOK.
00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE WITHIN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SECOND
UPR LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LLVL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SHOVED TOO FAR S BY THE LEAD SYSTEM AND
SHOULD RAPIDLY RETURN NWD INTO TX. AVAILABILITY OF RICHER THETA-E
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LEE-LOW/DRYLINE ACROSS WCNTRL TX WILL BE FOCI
FOR SATURDAY EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SSWLY LLJ SHOULD INTENSIFY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SVR EVENT EVOLVING
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX.
AS THE UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE LWR MS/TN VLYS SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SFC LOW
SHOULD MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THE INTENSIFYING WRMFNT TOWARD TN SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A STOUT SWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH LA...MS AND AL.
ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP UPSCALE FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN TX AND REACH THE TN VLY-DIXIE SUNDAY NIGHT.
..RACY.. 04/07/2009
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