SWOD48
SPC AC 080841
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT WED APR 08 2009
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE ERN PAC WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD AS CLOSED LOWS
ALONG THE WEST CST...THEN EJECT ENE TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS. THE
SECOND SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE HIGH PLNS BY LATE SATURDAY...BUT
RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THIS
SYSTEM DOWN. 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
RICH LLVL MOISTURE WILL HAVE GATHERED OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN BY THE
WEEKEND AND IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NW INTO TX SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO EDGE ONTO THE W TX HIGH PLNS
INVOF THE DRYLINE VERY LATE SATURDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS MAY
NOT MATERIALIZE ON DAY 4 /SAT-SAT NITE/ AS ONCE EXPECTED.
RATHER...ISOLD SVR STORMS WILL PROBABLY EXPAND ENE FROM W TX INTO OK
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHER END SVR POTENTIAL NOW APPEARS LIKELY FROM CNTRL/ERN TX EWD
TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY ON DAY 5 /SUNDAY-SUNDAY NITE/. WHILE
CLOUDS/ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMES COMMONPLACE GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE RED RVR...AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/E OF THE
DRYLINE/SFC-LOW TRACK ACROSS CNTRL TX. MAGNITUDE OF
MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LVLS AND 60-80 KTS OF SWLY
H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NUMEROUS SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
ADVANCE E AS FAR AS THE LWR MS VLY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER
TSTMS FEEDING ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS.
BEYOND SUNDAY...MODEL PREDICTABILITY BECOMES LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
HANDLING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD. THUS...A SVR OTLK IS
NOT YET JUSTIFIED FOR NEXT WEEK.
..RACY.. 04/08/2009
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