SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012044
FLZ000-012215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT WED APR 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND N FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100...
VALID 012044Z - 012215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100
CONTINUES.
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN FL PENINSULA IN THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ IS
FEEDING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE SSW...WHILE
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LARGER SCALE REGIME FAVORS LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ON THE STORM
SCALE...SUPERCELL INTERACTIONS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEA
BREEZE WILL ALLOW A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO IN THE
AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF CAPE CANAVERAL. OTHERWISE...OTHER STORMS
FORMING FARTHER WNW ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD DEVELOP
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS NEAR CTY COULD ALSO BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EWD/ESEWD ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT
BRINGS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS IN QUESTION.
..THOMPSON.. 04/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 27718034 27678071 28038102 28278132 28488190 28678240
28988286 29298334 29498338 29698315 29658264 29488185
29488115 29338075 28758037 27718034
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