SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020452
FLZ000-GAZ000-020645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT WED APR 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 020452Z - 020645Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SINCE MID/LATE EVENING REFLECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN TSTMS OFFSHORE THE FL PANHANDLE /SOUTH OF THE PANAMA
CITY AND APALACHICOLA AREAS/ WITHIN A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS...AS
A GULF AIRMASS /AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD AMIDST A SHARPENING MARINE FRONT. GIVEN
AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TALLAHASSEE
RAOB...THERE IS LEAST SOME CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT AS
TSTMS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND/HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK GIVEN MODERATE FLOW AROUND 1 KM AND A FEW
HUNDRED M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED FROM THE LATEST KTLH WSR-88D
VWP DATA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
RISK...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE...ALTHOUGH A
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS A SUBTLE UPSTREAM IMPULSE NEARS THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 04/02/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...TAE...
LAT...LON 30288624 30878595 30528341 29308306 29688548 30288624
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment