MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0446

ACUS11 KWNS 112303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112303
TXZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO PARTS OF NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139...

VALID 112303Z - 120030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139
CONTINUES.

TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF WW 139. A NEW WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY...OR
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES ADDED TO THE CURRENT WATCH...BY 01-02Z.

THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES EMANATING
FROM THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLATEAU
REGION HAVE SUPPORTED ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA. THESE FEATURES ARE
PROGRESSING THROUGH DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST IMPULSE APPARENTLY STILL DIGGING THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. UNTIL THIS SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO TEND TO DEVELOP FASTER TO THE NORTH THAN EAST...ACROSS WEST
TEXAS.

STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH 00-01Z ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED
WITHIN A LINGERING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY
INTO THE MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA...AND PERHAPS WITHIN THE STRONG
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE EDGE OF THIS RIDGE...EAST OF
HOBBS NM THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF MIDLAND/BIG SPRING. DESPITE SIZABLE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
BRIEF TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS PROBABLY THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THESE STORMS...AND ELEVATED STORMS TO THE
NORTH...WHICH COULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST OF LUBBOCK TOWARD CHILDRESS
PRIOR TO CURRENT WATCH EXPIRATION.

..KERR.. 04/11/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32800282 33690256 34220139 33580072 32390095 31420165
30530240 31050316 32800282

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