MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0504

ACUS11 KWNS 172220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172219
COZ000-172315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172219Z - 172315Z

ISOLD SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH A LOCAL OFFICE...A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED DUE TO LIMITED
AREAL EXTENT.

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR TAA WITH A
DRYLINE/OCCLUDED FRONT DRAPED FROM 10 MI ESE PUB ARCING SEWD TO LAA.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE PROTRUDED NWWD INTO SERN CO
BEHIND/S OF BOUNDARY WITH BACKED SELY TO NELY SURFACE FLOW
IMMEDIATELY N OF BOUNDARY. AMPLE AMBIENT LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INVOF
OF BOUNDARY IS CO-LOCATED WITH SUFFICIENT 0-3 KM CAPE /100 J/KG/.
AS STRONGER SEMI-DISCRETE UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH ENVIRONMENT
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE BOUNDARY...THEY MAY POSE A LIMITED/BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO. HOWEVER...ISOLD NATURE OF
EXPECTED THREAT ALONG WITH LIMITED AREAL EXTENT PRECLUDES A WW
ISSUANCE.

..SMITH.. 04/17/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37910221 38470322 38460388 38550445 38710455 38880443
39060335 38610230 38140208 37910221

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