SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190013
KSZ000-190115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169...
VALID 190013Z - 190115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169
CONTINUES.
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO MAINLY OVER SRN KS. HOWEVER...OVERALL
THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL.
EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR SALINA SWD TO
NEAR ATTICA MOVING EAST. MODEST BUT DEEP ELY STORM RELATIVE INFLOW
WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...BELT OF STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THIS REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
TIME. THESE LIMITING FACTORS AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL. GREATEST SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT MAY BE WITH BOWING
SEGMENT CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD THROUGH GRANT COUNTY IN NRN OK. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT SRN PARTS OF SUMNER AND COWLEY COUNTIES WITHIN
THE HOUR.
..DIAL.. 04/19/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38599691 37589651 36999699 37179766 37879764 38729781
38599691
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