SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232212
OKZ000-TXZ000-232315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT THU APR 23 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN TX AND SW OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 232212Z - 232315Z
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX INTO
SW OK MAY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW.
A HOT WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL
FAVOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH OVER
NM. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT CORES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
WELL MIXED PBL...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY AS THEY MOVE E-NEWD INTO A
MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE LOW
/AOB 500 J PER KG/...THE HOT/DRY ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTANT HIGH
THUNDERSTORM BASES /GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 KM PER RUC SOUNDINGS/ WILL
FAVOR SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND SUBLIMATION RESULTING IN
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. DUE TO GENERALLY
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
..GARNER.. 04/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 33050289 33050291 33950171 34790014 34969925 34739874
33739898 32629987 31970110 32030231 32800283 33050289
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