SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272259
TXZ000-280100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL TX -- NRN PERMIAN BASIN AND TX
SOUTH-PLAINS REGIONS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272259Z - 280100Z
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET INVOF FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED. ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NERN MO SWWD ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/SWRN OK...FROM INFLECTION POINT OVER TILLMAN COUNTY OK
SWWD ACROSS HASKELL COUNTY. AS OF 2230Z...W TX MESONET AND VIS
CLOUD LINE EACH INDICATES FRONT BECOMES WAVY AND QUASISTATIONARY
WNWWD FROM KENT-HOCKLEY COUNTIES...INTERSECTING RETREATING DRYLINE
OVER SRN GARZA COUNTY. FRONT IS FCST TO RETREAT NWD ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS REGION THIS EVENING. FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT ACCORDINGLY
SHOULD RETREAT WNWWD TO NWWD ACROSS SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. DRYLINE
WAS ANALYZED FROM THERE SWWD TO NEAR MAF THEN SWD INTO BIG BEND
AREA. ALTHOUGH HEATING/MIXING ARE OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES OF
DRYLINE...ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEE-SIDE PRESSURE
FALLS AND LARGE MESO-HIGH OVER SE TX IS CONTRIBUTING TO DRYLINE
RETREAT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING.
REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER OBS INDICATE ERRATIC/WEAK WIND FIELDS IN 0-3
KM LAYER ATTM...AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SMALL
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL SELY LLJ BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. HODOGRAPHS
WILL ENLARGE AROUND 00Z AS A RESULT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE STG
INVOF FRONT...AND MOIST SECTOR WINDS WITH TIME WILL ENHANCE
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH STG UPPER/ANVIL
LEVEL WINDS TO AID IN MULTICELLULAR/MRGL SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...POCKET OF WEAK MLCINH IS EVIDENT
INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG IS EVIDENT BASED ON
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...LIMITED BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM MESO-ANTICYCLONE.
..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31730248 32490249 33610234 33530168 33220089 33169984
32700001 32700121 32180191 32000211 31730248
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment