SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280008
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-280115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202...
VALID 280008Z - 280115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202
CONTINUES.
RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT CORES
HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ALONG AXIS OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME
ALIGNED FROM NERN AR INTO NRN/NWRN LA. LITTLE ROCK VWP DATA SHOW
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN LIMITED BY GENERALLY WEAK
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION.
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM MAY
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...POSSIBLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING S/W TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE RESULTANT
INCREASE IN LOW LVL SHEAR COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM
STRENGTH/SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THAT POTENTIAL MAY BE
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY A CONTINUED DECREASE IN MLCAPE. SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF WW 202 WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE UNTIL 02Z
EXPIRATION...BUT CLEARANCE OF NWRN PORTION MAY BE CONSIDERED /THOUGH
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE NIGHT
WITH APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT/.
..GARNER.. 04/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31399460 34869382 34879101 31419191 31399460
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