SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280154
MOZ000-ARZ000-280300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN-NRN AR...S CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 280154Z - 280300Z
THE SVR WEATHER THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
OVER PORTIONS OF WRN-NRN AR INTO S CNTRL MO. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
AT 01Z...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM S CNTRL OK INTO
EXTREME SWRN MO AND THEN W CNTRL IL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN
SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST HR ALONG AN AXIS FROM ELD N TOWARD
BVX...RESULTING IN A ZONE OF FAVORABLE THETA-E AND NEAR SFC BASED
INSTABILITY /ROUGHLY 1700 J PER KG OF MLCAPE DERIVED FROM LZK
OBSERVED RAOB/. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND MATURE
ALONG AND W OF THIS AXIS...WITH ONE STORM MOVING FROM CLEBURNE
COUNTY AR INTO STONE COUNTY AR DISPLAYING WEAK LOW LVL ROTATION.
LITTLE ROCK VWP DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW FAVORABLE LOW LVL SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LOW LVL MESOCYCLONES...AND
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEREFORE...A SHORT TERM THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY DEVELOP. THOUGH
A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
..GARNER.. 04/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 33459383 33749422 34499424 35989336 37059229 37439130
36979062 33939269 33459383
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