MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0622

ACUS11 KWNS 290046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290046
TXZ000-NMZ000-290245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM AND TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205...

VALID 290046Z - 290245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205
CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW. VIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE
ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE...EVEN AS EARLIEST TSTMS
MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND WEAKEN. AS OF 00Z...DRYLINE WAS
ANALYZED NEAR THE LINE LVS...20 E CQC...SRR...GDP...10 E
MRF...LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

SFC-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
02Z...WITH DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SUPPORTING
NARROW/MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
MAINLY OVER AND W OF PECOS RIVER. ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING --
LIKELY COINCIDING WITH ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY --
DEMARCATES ERN EDGE OF MOST BUOYANT AIR FROM CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY SWD TO NEAR A ROW...CNM...PEQ LINE. THIS QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR TIGHT LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS CROSSING IT. WITH
TIME...PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW
AREA...EITHER AS NOCTURNAL CONTINUATION OF ONGOING/DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
ACTIVITY OR WITHIN WRN LIMB OF INITIALLY SEPARATE WAA/LLJ REGIME
DESCRIBED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 621.

..EDWARDS.. 04/29/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 30050256 30650344 30330375 32470459 33550495 35460465
35770452 35810434 35850341 35690301 32080303 32070281
31300274 31210244 31070237 30980200 30870185 30620177
30640214 30590212 30590237 30260236 30260256 30050256

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.