SWODY1
SPC AC 050050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2009
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NE SC AND ERN NC......
...NE SC/ERN NC...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS ERN NC THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR A MID-LEVEL
JET WHICH IS CREATING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE RUC SUGGESTS INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE
RALEIGH WSR-88D VWP HAS DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
ABOUT 30 KT AT 1 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.
...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WITH BROAD ZONAL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM NW KS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO CNTRL
NEB AND SRN SD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EXIST. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT THIS EVENING.
...SRN PLAINS...
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NE TX ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE STORMS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 55 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET.
ACCORDING TO THE RUC...THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE ERN EDGE OF A
MAXIMUM IN MUCAPE AND SHOULD MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY THIS
EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED.
FURTHER WEST...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN WEST TX
LATE TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME OVER WRN
OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY
LOCATED ABOVE 700 MB WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
..BROYLES.. 05/05/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment