SWODY1
SPC AC 070058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2009
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED IN
WRN KY THIS EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO
EXTREME ERN KY BY SUNRISE THU. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFTING INCREASES AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 KT WILL
INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KT AS ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT
TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...REFERENCE WW 257.
...SRN GA...
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL INTO FAR SWRN GA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT. EVENING SOUNDING AT TLH SHOWS THE
WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AOB 20 KT FROM THE SFC TO 700
MB. ALSO A WARM LAYER AROUND 650 MB APPEARED TO BE INHIBITING
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE MAIN WAVE MOVING
NORTH OF THIS AREA SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LOW FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD TROUGH ALOFT MOVING EWD INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WERE PRIMARILY DRIVEN WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS AND LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING HAS STABILIZED THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIE OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE LIFTS NEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED WITH THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER.
...NRN NEB AND SRN SD...
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70 KT JET MAX WERE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
ENTER INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ATTM...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH/WIND MAX SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
..IMY.. 05/07/2009
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