SWODY1
SPC AC 120057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEAST TX/GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES...
ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MODIFIED WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE...ISOLATED
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND FAR SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
OTHER EARLIER SEA BREEZE INDUCED TSTMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
WANE ALONG THE GA/FL ATLANTIC COAST.
...SOUTHWEST TX...
AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND PERTURBED FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MEXICAN UPPER RIDGE...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWEST TX BIG BEND. SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISK.
...FAR EASTERN MT/DAKOTAS...
LOW AMPLITUDE LEAD IMPULSE CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN MT...AND A
NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING CORRIDOR OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR EASTERN MT INTO ND AND ADJACENT
SD/MN TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/MODEST BUOYANCY...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR PER 00Z OBSERVED BIS/GGW
RAOBS WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL TONIGHT.
...OK/NORTH TX/KS INTO ADJACENT WESTERN AR/SOUTHWEST MO...
CONTINUED LEE CYCLOGENESIS/ONSET OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF WESTERN STATES TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A STRONG NORTHWARD/ELEVATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...VIA A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 35-40 KT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. COINCIDENT WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
/REFERENCE 00Z AMARILLO OBSERVED RAOB/ SHOULD CONFINE THIS ACTIVITY
TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ADVECTS
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS FAR NORTH TX
AND OK INTO KS...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF AR/SOUTHWEST
MO...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKNESS BETWEEN 2-6 KM SUGGESTS STORMS MAY TEND TO
INTERFERE AND/OR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT ROTATION POTENTIAL/LONGEVITY.
..GUYER.. 05/12/2009
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