SWODY1
SPC AC 261627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TX...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERAL DIFFUSE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING
AND DRYING WILL OCCUR FROM THE WEST ACROSS TX...YIELDING AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG ROUGHLY FROM MWL/SPS EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST AR. WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO
REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE /LOWER 90S F ON 12Z FWD RAOB/ AND LEAD
TO A FEW INTENSE MULTICELL CLUSTERS. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A
RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NM
WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LIKELY PROMOTE
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX.
THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT WITH A
RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...FL...
THE PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY
WITH STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LEADING TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON SEA BREEZES MOVING INLAND AND COLLIDING.
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CORES.
...IA/IL...
WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MO INTO IA THIS MORNING. A PLUME OF MOIST AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND FIELDS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
MINOR THREAT FOR SMALL ROTATING STORMS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/26/2009
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