SWODY2
SPC AC 200558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STAGNANT/BLOCKED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER EASTERN CANADA.
FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MIGRATES WESTWARD...AND AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS. PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD/GENERALLY DECELERATE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS ON THURSDAY.
...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD BENEATH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES RIDGE ON THURSDAY...WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED EASTERLY
FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 3-4 KM ACROSS NORTH FL AND AL/GA. WHILE
MODERATE LOW LEVEL SRH COULD KINEMATICALLY SUPPORT SOME BRIEF LOW
LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
FLOW...ANEMIC WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS...AND LIMITED HEATING/LAPSE
RATES VIA CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION...ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A VERY
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
...FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE OF
SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR FOUR
CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES VIA THE FRONTAL SURGE AND A SOUTHERLY
INFLUX TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY/SOUTHWEST DESERTS. DOMINANCE OF THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED COOL/STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE
SEVERE TSTMS WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OF THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER TSTMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM FRONT RANGE. ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NM/CO
INTO EASTERN AZ...MODEST HEATING AND A HIGHER PW ENVIRONMENT MAY
SUPPORT SOME HAIL...BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
..GUYER.. 05/20/2009
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