DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 220537
SWODY2
SPC AC 220535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- THE SRN FRINGE OF WHICH WILL AFFECT THE
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND -- WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN 2/3
OF CANADA...THOUGH A MUCH WEAKER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. A RATHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER
THE WEST...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE GULF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS
RIVER. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES
ONSHORE...AND A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ERN CANADA
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE TRAILING WSWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

...PA/NY...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK/SLOWLY-MOVING
SURFACE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE OH
VALLEY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SLIGHTLY-STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS PA -- AND ESPECIALLY NY -- MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOW-END HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.
ATTM...POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIMITED...AND THUS WILL
NOT INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK.

...MT...
WHILE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MT AND VICINITY THIS
PERIOD...WEAK ELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY
SUPPORT WEAK ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...AND THUS A LOW-END THREAT FOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 05/22/2009

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