SWODY2
SPC AC 201621
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
VERY QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD...IN REGARDS
TO ORGANIZED SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION...AS STRONGER WLY FLOW HAS
RETREATED TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. ANOTHER IMPEDIMENT TO ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WHICH HAS LED TO WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
PRIMARY REASON FOR REDUCED MOISTURE IS THE PERSISTENT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD HOLD WELL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOWER
48 THURSDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SWRN U.S. FROM AZ/NM...NWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN MARKEDLY ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN MEXICO AND THIS
PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EASE NWD BENEATH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY ALONG WIND SHIFT AS IT SAGS SWD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW AS IT DRIFTS WWD ACROSS
FL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO. COOL...MOIST PROFILES AND DEEP SELY FLOW
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 05/20/2009
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