SWODY3
SPC AC 200729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED CONUS-WIDE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AMIDST A GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX VIA THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOW...WITH OTHER TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
...GULF COAST STATES TO ARKLATEX/MIDWEST...
00Z BASED MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
MAY SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOW-PERIPHERAL
HEATING AND A GRADUALLY MOISTENING AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT SOME
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE WESTWARD MOVING CLUSTERS...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. OTHER TSTMS /PERHAPS A FEW STRONG/ COULD DIURNALLY DEVELOP
AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG THE
NEARLY-STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AMIDST ANEMIC LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW. HOWEVER...PERCEIVED MARGINAL/SPORADIC NATURE OF ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION/ARKLATEX TO MIDWEST PRECLUDES
INCLUSION OF ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR/CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. WHILE VEERING WIND
PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEB...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A
RESIDUALLY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT A
SEVERE RISK.
...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS...
WITH A COOL UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS AZ INTO FRIDAY...MODEST
HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON UPSWING OF
TSTMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NM/SOUTHERN CO
AND EASTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST UT. SOME OF THESE TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.
..GUYER.. 05/20/2009
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