SWODY3
SPC AC 240704
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE WEAK WLY/MEAN FLOW...A BROAD/WEAK TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING EWD/SEWD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...THOUGH TIMING/POSITIONING
DIFFERENCES EMERGE WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE DAY
3 PERIOD.
OVERALL...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS GENERALLY LOW AGAIN THIS PERIOD.
THE NAM -- GENERALLY SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE S CENTRAL CONUS -- SUGGESTS A ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS N CENTRAL TX...JUST N OF A W-E SEGMENT OF THE FRONT AND E/NE
OF A WEAK LOW PROGGED OVER W CENTRAL TX. HERE...DESTABILIZATION
COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL ELYS/NELYS N OF THE FRONT VEERING WITH
HEIGHT TO MODERATE/WLY AT MID LEVELS WOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE FASTER GFS PLACES A LOW OVER NERN TX
BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND MUCH LESS-PRONOUNCED ELYS ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THUS...ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE WEAKER -- DUE TO
THE WEAKER SHEAR -- AND FARTHER E -- DUE TO THE MORE ERN POSITION OF
THE SURFACE WAVE.
ATTM...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITY AS A RESULT OF THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. LIMITED/ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT
OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CONUS HOWEVER...WHICH COULD
REQUIRE THE INTRODUCTION OF PROBABILITIES IN LATER FORECASTS.
..GOSS.. 05/24/2009
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