SWOD48
SPC AC 190859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...WITH THE STRONGEST
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. WEAK
SUMMER-LIKE WESTERLIES AND/OR LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND NO 30% DAY-1
EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A POTENTIAL ONSHORE MOVEMENT THIS
WEEKEND OF THIS SYSTEM...AND AN ASSOCIATED MOIST INFLUX/POSSIBILITY
OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WIND FIELDS...MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SEVERE
TSTM POTENTIAL AROUND DAYS 5-7 SATURDAY-MONDAY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES. IN ADDITION...THIS SAME INCREASE OF MOISTURE
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD LEAD TO A BIT OF AN UPSWING OF
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH GENERAL WEAK FORCING/WEAK WINDS ON THE
LARGE SCALE ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LOW ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOME
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND /DAYS 5-6/ ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS VIA LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES.
..GUYER.. 05/19/2009
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