SWOD48
SPC AC 250844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO APPEAR RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AFTER WHICH THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT/WRN U.S.
TROUGH.
BOTH MODELS TAKE A TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY REGION AT THE START
OF THE DAY 4 PERIOD AND CONTINUE IT EWD...PHASING TO VARIOUS DEGREES
WITH STRONGER/NRN STREAM TROUGHING OVER ERN CANADA. AS THIS ERN
TROUGH EXPANDS...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CONUS DAYS 4-5 /THU. 5-29 AND FRI. 5-30/ IN NWLY FLOW
REGIME. ATTM...DEGREE OF POTENTIAL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT AREAL INCLUSION THIS FORECAST.
UPSTREAM...MODELS FORECAST THE EVOLUTION OF A WRN TROUGH THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION. THUS...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT
AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 05/25/2009
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