SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012236
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-012330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OH AND WRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012236Z - 012330Z
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH AND WRN PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY
THREATS OF HAIL/WIND CAN BE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE
MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE OF STRONGER STORMS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH AMPLE CLOUD COVER HAS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED STRONGER SURFACE HEATING...POCKETS OF
CLEARING...AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S HAVE ALLOWED A
NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. PROFILER DATA ACROSS
THE REGION SHOW NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ORIENTED ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER INDIVIDUAL CELLS
AND FAVOR BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION. DESPITE ADEQUATE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERITY OF
STORMS...WITH MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY COLLAPSING CELLS AS 30 TO 35 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE ARE ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
..HURLBUT.. 05/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39708132 39478283 40098303 40628172 41428020 41857916
41517836 40717915 40008055 39708132
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