MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0674

ACUS11 KWNS 022222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022222
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-022315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N/CNTRL MS AND AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 227...

VALID 022222Z - 022315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 227 CONTINUES.

TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW227...WITH A DMGG WIND
THREAT LIKELY INCREASING AS WELL ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH ARE
BEING MONITORED...AND A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS N/CNTRL MS AND AL IN
RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX OVER NRN MS. DEVELOPMENT HAS PRIMARILY BEEN
FOCUSED ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. UPSTREAM 21Z SHV SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY
UNCAPPED AIRMASS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE
GRADUALLY BEING SPREAD EWD INTO THE WATCH AREA. STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE VORT MAX AS IT TRANSITIONS EWD...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN SEVERITY. CURRENT OBS REFLECT GENERALLY SLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS WIND FIELDS IMPROVE WITH TIME. IN WRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...A DMGG WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER
CONVECTION TO THE W CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR. FURTHERMORE...AREAS TO THE E OF THE WATCH ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR INCREASES IN DEVELOPMENT...AND A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

..HURLBUT.. 05/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 32389111 34149103 34978595 34798519 33948506 33328528
32389111

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