MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0703

ACUS11 KWNS 042216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042215
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-042315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...ERN SC...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240...241...242...

VALID 042215Z - 042315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
240...241...242...CONTINUES.

PRIMARY SVR THREAT THROUGH SUNSET WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE
NRN COASTAL PLAINS OF SC INTO PARTS OF SCNTRL-SERN NC. DMGG WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR.

BANDS OF TSTMS ASSOCD WITH THE TAIL-END OF A MID-LVL WAVE EJECTING
INTO THE NERN STATES HAVE DIMINISHED OVER FAR ERN NC LATE THIS AFTN.
APPARENT SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE LACK OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS MOST CNTRL/NRN NC THROUGH
THE AFTN.

ASCENT FOR FORCING HAS LARGELY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAVANNAH RVR VLY INTO THE MIDLANDS
OF SC. AIR MASS WAS ESSENTIALLY UNTOUCHED BY EARLIER STORMS FROM
NERN SC INTO PARTS OF SCNTRL/SERN NC WHERE MORNING MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. ISOLD ROTATING STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY AND 30-35 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR. HOWEVER...PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELL CLUSTERS
THAT WILL TEND TO BOW PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CURRENT BOW STRUCTURE WILL MOVE ALONG/SE
OF I-95 FROM THE FLORENCE SC AREA NEWD TOWARD DILLON SC...WHITEVILLE
AND LUMBERTON NC THROUGH 00-01Z.

FARTHER TO THE N...ISOLD TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER REGION. WFO WAKEFIELD WILL BE ADDING A FEW COUNTIES IN
SCNTRL/SERN VA TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241.

..RACY.. 05/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON 32248245 33798177 34437989 36387895 36397583 35187599
34037777 32717962 32098137 32248245

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